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Model Weighting Methods

Source: R/model_weights.R
model_weights.brmsfit.Rd

Compute model weights in various ways, for instance, via stacking of posterior predictive distributions, Akaike weights, or marginal likelihoods.

Usage

# S3 method for class 'brmsfit'
model_weights(x, ..., weights = "stacking", model_names = NULL)

model_weights(x, ...)

Arguments

x

A brmsfit object.

...

More brmsfit objects or further arguments passed to the underlying post-processing functions. In particular, see prepare_predictions for further supported arguments.

weights

Name of the criterion to compute weights from. Should be one of "loo", "waic", "kfold", "stacking" (current default), "bma", or "pseudobma". For the former three options, Akaike weights will be computed based on the information criterion values returned by the respective methods. For "stacking" and "pseudobma", method loo_model_weights will be used to obtain weights. For "bma", method post_prob will be used to compute Bayesian model averaging weights based on log marginal likelihood values (make sure to specify reasonable priors in this case). For some methods, weights may also be a numeric vector of pre-specified weights.

model_names

If NULL (the default) will use model names derived from deparsing the call. Otherwise will use the passed values as model names.

Value

A numeric vector of weights for the models.

Examples

# \dontrun{
# model with 'treat' as predictor
fit1 <- brm(rating ~ treat + period + carry, data = inhaler)
#> Compiling Stan program...
#> Start sampling
#> 
#> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1).
#> Chain 1: 
#> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
#> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
#> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
#> Chain 1: 
#> Chain 1: 
#> Chain 1: Iteration:    1 / 2000 [  0%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 1: Iteration:  200 / 2000 [ 10%]  (Warmup)
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#> Chain 1: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 1: 
#> Chain 1:  Elapsed Time: 0.03 seconds (Warm-up)
#> Chain 1:                0.028 seconds (Sampling)
#> Chain 1:                0.058 seconds (Total)
#> Chain 1: 
#> 
#> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2).
#> Chain 2: 
#> Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
#> Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
#> Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
#> Chain 2: 
#> Chain 2: 
#> Chain 2: Iteration:    1 / 2000 [  0%]  (Warmup)
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#> Chain 2: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 2: 
#> Chain 2:  Elapsed Time: 0.029 seconds (Warm-up)
#> Chain 2:                0.027 seconds (Sampling)
#> Chain 2:                0.056 seconds (Total)
#> Chain 2: 
#> 
#> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 3).
#> Chain 3: 
#> Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3.7e-05 seconds
#> Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.37 seconds.
#> Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
#> Chain 3: 
#> Chain 3: 
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#> Chain 3: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 3: 
#> Chain 3:  Elapsed Time: 0.029 seconds (Warm-up)
#> Chain 3:                0.027 seconds (Sampling)
#> Chain 3:                0.056 seconds (Total)
#> Chain 3: 
#> 
#> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 4).
#> Chain 4: 
#> Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
#> Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
#> Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
#> Chain 4: 
#> Chain 4: 
#> Chain 4: Iteration:    1 / 2000 [  0%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 4: Iteration:  200 / 2000 [ 10%]  (Warmup)
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#> Chain 4: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 4: 
#> Chain 4:  Elapsed Time: 0.031 seconds (Warm-up)
#> Chain 4:                0.027 seconds (Sampling)
#> Chain 4:                0.058 seconds (Total)
#> Chain 4: 
summary(fit1)
#>  Family: gaussian 
#>   Links: mu = identity 
#> Formula: rating ~ treat + period + carry 
#>    Data: inhaler (Number of observations: 572) 
#>   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
#>          total post-warmup draws = 4000
#> 
#> Regression Coefficients:
#>           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
#> Intercept     1.43      0.03     1.38     1.48 1.00     5141     3071
#> treat        -0.25      0.07    -0.40    -0.12 1.00     3744     3329
#> period        0.05      0.05    -0.05     0.15 1.00     5014     2593
#> carry        -0.04      0.05    -0.14     0.06 1.00     3799     3320
#> 
#> Further Distributional Parameters:
#>       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
#> sigma     0.61      0.02     0.57     0.65 1.00     4826     2588
#> 
#> Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
#> and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
#> scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

# model without 'treat' as predictor
fit2 <- brm(rating ~ period + carry, data = inhaler)
#> Compiling Stan program...
#> Start sampling
#> 
#> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1).
#> Chain 1: 
#> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
#> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
#> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
#> Chain 1: 
#> Chain 1: 
#> Chain 1: Iteration:    1 / 2000 [  0%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 1: Iteration:  200 / 2000 [ 10%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 1: Iteration:  400 / 2000 [ 20%]  (Warmup)
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#> Chain 1: Iteration: 1000 / 2000 [ 50%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 1: Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 1: Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 1: Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 1: Iteration: 1600 / 2000 [ 80%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 1: Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 1: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 1: 
#> Chain 1:  Elapsed Time: 0.019 seconds (Warm-up)
#> Chain 1:                0.018 seconds (Sampling)
#> Chain 1:                0.037 seconds (Total)
#> Chain 1: 
#> 
#> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2).
#> Chain 2: 
#> Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
#> Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
#> Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
#> Chain 2: 
#> Chain 2: 
#> Chain 2: Iteration:    1 / 2000 [  0%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 2: Iteration:  200 / 2000 [ 10%]  (Warmup)
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#> Chain 2: Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%]  (Sampling)
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#> Chain 2: Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 2: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 2: 
#> Chain 2:  Elapsed Time: 0.02 seconds (Warm-up)
#> Chain 2:                0.019 seconds (Sampling)
#> Chain 2:                0.039 seconds (Total)
#> Chain 2: 
#> 
#> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 3).
#> Chain 3: 
#> Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
#> Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
#> Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
#> Chain 3: 
#> Chain 3: 
#> Chain 3: Iteration:    1 / 2000 [  0%]  (Warmup)
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#> Chain 3: Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 3: Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%]  (Sampling)
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#> Chain 3: Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 3: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 3: 
#> Chain 3:  Elapsed Time: 0.021 seconds (Warm-up)
#> Chain 3:                0.018 seconds (Sampling)
#> Chain 3:                0.039 seconds (Total)
#> Chain 3: 
#> 
#> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 4).
#> Chain 4: 
#> Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
#> Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
#> Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
#> Chain 4: 
#> Chain 4: 
#> Chain 4: Iteration:    1 / 2000 [  0%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 4: Iteration:  200 / 2000 [ 10%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 4: Iteration:  400 / 2000 [ 20%]  (Warmup)
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#> Chain 4: Iteration: 1000 / 2000 [ 50%]  (Warmup)
#> Chain 4: Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 4: Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 4: Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%]  (Sampling)
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#> Chain 4: Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 4: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%]  (Sampling)
#> Chain 4: 
#> Chain 4:  Elapsed Time: 0.021 seconds (Warm-up)
#> Chain 4:                0.019 seconds (Sampling)
#> Chain 4:                0.04 seconds (Total)
#> Chain 4: 
summary(fit2)
#>  Family: gaussian 
#>   Links: mu = identity 
#> Formula: rating ~ period + carry 
#>    Data: inhaler (Number of observations: 572) 
#>   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
#>          total post-warmup draws = 4000
#> 
#> Regression Coefficients:
#>           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
#> Intercept     1.43      0.03     1.38     1.48 1.00     4373     2919
#> period        0.05      0.05    -0.05     0.15 1.00     4971     3273
#> carry        -0.17      0.04    -0.24    -0.10 1.00     4603     3055
#> 
#> Further Distributional Parameters:
#>       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
#> sigma     0.61      0.02     0.58     0.65 1.00     4597     3029
#> 
#> Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
#> and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
#> scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

# obtain Akaike weights based on the WAIC
model_weights(fit1, fit2, weights = "waic")
#>        fit1        fit2 
#> 0.993487435 0.006512565 
# }